Victoria Braces for Extreme Fire Danger Amid Heat and Winds
Victoria is on high alert as a potent mix of dry conditions, soaring temperatures, and gusty north-westerly winds sets the stage for extreme fire danger across much of the state. Authorities have issued stark warnings, urging residents to prepare for a perilous day ahead, with a total fire ban declared in all districts except East Gippsland and the South West. This comes on the heels of a record-dry start to 2026, exacerbating the risks in an already parched landscape.
Forecast: Scorching Heat Meets Fierce Winds
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicts temperatures climbing into the high 30s and low 40s in northern Victoria, with Mildura bracing for over 40 degrees Celsius and Shepparton expecting 39C. Even Melbourne, typically milder, is forecast to hit 32C. Senior meteorologist Kevin Parkyn highlighted the role of north-westerly winds gusting up to 40 km/h, which will fan any potential flames.
"It's the hot north-westerly winds in combination with the parched landscape that's elevating the fire danger risk across Victoria," Parkyn explained. While these conditions won't match the catastrophic January fires that ravaged the state—destroying or damaging at least 1,590 structures—they follow weeks of minimal rainfall, leaving fuels critically dry.
Record-Dry Start to the Year
Victoria's drought-like conditions are no exaggeration. BOM data reveals that some rainfall stations in the north-west haven't seen a drop since December 21, 2025—nearly two months ago. Across the state, many areas have recorded just 10mm or less since January 1. In Melbourne, the city gauge has logged only 4mm, the driest start since 2009. Last week's figures showed four of Greater Melbourne's 13 rain gauges hitting their lowest-ever January totals, ranging from 2% to 9% of average rainfall.
This prolonged dryness has turned grasslands and bushlands into tinderboxes, particularly in regions untouched by recent fires. Country Fire Authority (CFA) Chief Officer Jason Heffernan warned that any blaze igniting under tomorrow's conditions could be "difficult, if not impossible, to contain." He emphasized the real and present risk: "The rainfall deficit has meant the fuel is very dry—the bush, the grasslands are very dry."
Fire Danger Ratings and Bans: What You Need to Know
Most of Victoria is rated at extreme fire danger, with East Gippsland teetering on the edge of that category and the South West in the mid-high range. The total fire ban prohibits all outdoor activities that could spark a fire, including barbecues, campfires, and even some welding work. Residents in fire-prone areas are advised to have bushfire survival plans ready, clear leaf litter from roofs, and monitor official updates via the VicEmergency app.
The CFA and other emergency services are ramping up resources, but the unpredictable winds add a layer of complexity. Heffernan noted that much of the state's vegetation hasn't been burned in recent events, leaving ample fuel loads. "The risk is absolutely there," he stressed, calling for community vigilance.
Regional Breakdown
- Northern Victoria: Highest risks with temps in the 40s; expect rapid fire spread in dry grasslands.
- Melbourne and Surrounds: 32C with gusts; urban fringes vulnerable to ember attacks.
- South-West: Milder temps due to early cool change; still high danger but less extreme.
- East Gippsland: High rating, monitoring closely for escalation.
Relief on the Horizon: Cool Change Incoming
There's a silver lining—a cool change is forecast to sweep through from the south-west starting mid-morning. It should reach Melbourne between midday and 2pm, ushering in milder air and easing the immediate heat pressure. Parkyn anticipates this shift will lower temperatures significantly by evening, potentially dropping fire dangers for the following days.
However, experts caution that the underlying dryness persists. Long-term forecasts suggest continued below-average rainfall, underscoring the need for sustained water conservation and fire mitigation efforts. The January fires serve as a grim reminder: swift action and preparation saved lives, but the scars remain.
Broader Implications for Australia
This event is part of a larger pattern of extreme weather linked to climate variability. Victoria's woes mirror challenges across Australia, where heatwaves and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. The BOM's analysis points to a La Niña-influenced wetter summer fading into drier conditions, heightening fire seasons nationwide.
Environmental groups advocate for enhanced reforestation and water management to build resilience. Meanwhile, farmers in northern Victoria are grappling with crop losses from the heat and lack of rain, impacting food security and economies.
As Victoria navigates this high-risk period, staying informed is crucial. Tune into ABC News for live updates, and remember: in extreme fire weather, preparation isn't optional—it's essential. With the cool change approaching, hope glimmers, but the message is clear: respect the elements and prioritize safety.
