Minnesota's Political Landscape Shifts as Democracy Concerns Emerge
St. Paul, MN – A new survey released by Emerson College Polling on February 11th, 2026, offers a stark snapshot of Minnesota's evolving political terrain. The poll indicates that Democratic candidates currently hold leads over their Republican counterparts in key races for governor and U.S. Senate, with a notable shift in voter priorities as "threats to democracy" has become the paramount concern for a significant portion of the electorate.
Tafoya Trails in Hypothetical Senate Contests
The race for the U.S. Senate seat is shaping up to be a challenging one for Republican candidate Michele Tafoya. In hypothetical matchups, both Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and U.S. Representative Angie Craig are leading Tafoya. The poll shows Flanagan with a 47% to 41% advantage over Tafoya, with 12% undecided or supporting other candidates. Similarly, Angie Craig leads Tafoya 47% to 40%, with 13% undecided or leaning elsewhere.
These figures suggest that Tafoya faces an uphill battle to gain traction in the state's senatorial aspirations. The results underscore the competitive nature of Minnesota politics and the importance of voter engagement in the lead-up to the 2026 elections.
Governor's Race Sees Klobuchar Leading
In the contest to replace retiring Governor Tim Walz, Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar demonstrates a commanding lead. Against Republican Speaker of the Minnesota House Lisa Demuth, Klobuchar garners 51% of the vote compared to Demuth's 38%. The lead is even more pronounced against MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, with Klobuchar leading 53% to 31%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted the significance of independent voter support. "Independent voters in the race for Governor support Amy Klobuchar against potential Republican opponents, by 27 points against State Rep. Demuth, and 40 points against Mike Lindell," Kimball stated.
Minnesota House Races Narrowly Divided
Looking at the state legislature, the generic ballot for the Minnesota House of Representatives shows a close contest. Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) candidates hold a slight edge with 49% support, while Republican candidates are backed by 42%. This reflects the current even split of seats in the Minnesota House, with all seats up for election in 2026.
Democracy Concerns Emerge as Top Voter Issue
Perhaps the most striking finding of the Emerson poll is the emergence of "threats to democracy" as the top issue facing Minnesota voters. A significant 28% of respondents cited this as their primary concern, outranking immigration (17%) and the economy (16%). This marks a notable shift, as noted by Kimball: "This is the first statewide survey that threats to democracy topped economic concerns."
The poll further breaks down this concern by party affiliation. Nearly half of Democrats (49%) and 29% of independents identify threats to democracy as their top issue. Conversely, a plurality of Republicans (31%) prioritize immigration.
Voter Sentiment on ICE and Immigration Policy
The survey also delved into voter opinions on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). A majority of Minnesota voters (56%) disapprove of former President Donald Trump's job performance, while 39% approve. Governor Tim Walz receives a 47% disapproval rating and 41% approval.
Regarding ICE, 60% of Minnesota voters believe its presence in communities is more harmful than beneficial, a sentiment mirrored nationally. When asked about immigration policies, 42% prefer the Trump administration's approach, compared to 35% who favor the Biden administration's policies, and 23% who are undecided or prefer neither. While 46% oppose eliminating ICE, 42% favor its elimination, with 12% unsure.
The poll also examined voter reactions to specific ICE-related incidents in Minneapolis. A majority (57%) found the actions of an ICE officer in the shooting of Renee Good to be unjustified, while 34% believed it was justified. Similar sentiments were expressed regarding the shooting of Alex Pretti, with 61% deeming the officer's actions unjustified and 26% justified.
The Trump administration's handling of the Alex Pretti shooting also drew significant disapproval, with 59% of Minnesota voters expressing dissatisfaction. This disapproval is particularly strong among Democrats (94%) and independents (64%), while 62% of Republicans approve of the administration's response.
Methodology and Implications
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted between February 6th and 8th, 2026, surveying 1,000 likely Minnesota voters. The poll carries a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points. Data was weighted to ensure representativeness across various demographic factors, including gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region.
The findings suggest a dynamic political landscape in Minnesota, where concerns about democratic integrity are increasingly influencing voter priorities. For candidates like Michele Tafoya, these shifts necessitate a careful understanding of the electorate's evolving concerns and a strategic approach to address the paramount issue of threats to democracy, alongside traditional policy debates.